Are These Signs Of Hope?

A week of positive developments

At any given moment, it can feel like the status quo will stretch on indefinitely. The current forces that seem to define society appear entrenched, our thinking intransigent.

There is no shortage of pundits and prognosticators who limit their perceived insights to operating within the rules and structure of our present-day systems.

But there are increasing signs that there might be some significant shifts on the national and world stage, including several recent ones that merit consideration. Even, dare we say, hope?

History teaches us that change — often rapid and dramatic — is actually the norm. Even if that reality only appears obvious in retrospect.

For all the talk about our country being stuck in polarized stasis, we have, in fact, been living in a time of incredible disruption. But almost any era of this nation’s short history has been marked by drastic transformations in aspects of government, society, technology, economics, and international affairs.

Consider a lifetime of around 80 years. It would only take only about three of those, lined back to back, to reach the founding of this nation. Eighty years ago, the United States was gripped in the final phase of World War II. Eighty years before that, it was the Civil War. And 80 years before that, we still didn’t have our Constitution.

Needless to say, a lot can happen in a lifetime, a decade, or even a year. And most of it will be unpredictable.

Historians, with the benefit of hindsight, often trace trends that later emerge as substantial to modest beginnings. It is much more difficult to do that in real-time. New movements can fizzle out. Novel paths often end up leading to dead ends.

But we should not be too fatalistic as to dismiss movements of progress as fated to fail. This past week, there were four very different developments that I would like to focus on here because they came with at least a faint sense of hope.

I start with aid to Ukraine. As I have written many times before, the dithering by the Republican-led House in supporting a nation staring down Vladimir Putin’s murderous aggression has been a moral and strategic failing. Thanks to the previous president, who has made appeasing the Russian tyrant his most consistent policy position, too many in his party fell in line.

That still remains true for too many Republicans but American support can now flow again, thanks in large part to the leadership of House Speaker Mike Johnson. Now, unlike CNN who called Johnson an “improbable Churchill,” I want to be a bit measured in my praise. This was all too late. And Johnson has made a host of other decisions which are the opposite of bold and responsible governance. But at the same time, something shifted within him in recent weeks, and as a result, America and the world are better off for it. That’s progress, no matter how you cut it.

In another area of world affairs, in a recent post, I hoped for restraint on the part of Israel in responding to Iran’s massive missile and drone attack. Israel did strike Iran in retaliation. And initially, it seemed like that could spark the regional war many desperately feared. But as the details have emerged, it is clear that the response was limited in scope and both Israel and Iran are suggesting that, at least for the moment, a dangerous game of escalating tit-for-tat has come to an end. This is very welcomed news.

We found out that many Arab states helped Israel thwart the original Iranian attack. This is a sign of a new Middle East, and potentially a more stable one. It also gives me hope that, along with renewed international pressure, the war in Gaza and the right for Palestinian self-governance can be part of a more hopeful future. Although none of this is to minimize the immense tragedy of the last several months. Change can happen, but it will take a lot of work.

Work is also on display in my third example of a hopeful trend. This one comes from Chattanooga, Tennessee where workers at a Volkswagen auto plant voted overwhelmingly to unionize. This is a huge victory for the United Automobile Workers union, which has tried for years to organize in the South in plants not owned by the so-called “Big Three” Detroit automakers. Now the U.A.W. has plans for votes in several other factories in the region, like a Mercedes plant in Alabama.

This latest development should be seen as part of a massive sea change in the fate of organized labor in the United States. For most of my lifetime, it has been in decline since its peak in the booming post-World War II years. But recently, organized labor has seen an infusion of energy and impressive results.

Finally, we have a jury impaneled in an election interference trial for the former president. After a lifetime of avoiding responsibility, he will have to sit in a Manhattan courtroom and listen to the evidence against him. He will be judged in ways he cannot control. I wish the other cases against him were proceeding with the same timeliness. But we should not minimize what this trial represents. And the judgment that could come.

Much more could be said about each of these examples. And they should still be measured against the uncertainties of our chaotic and complicated world. But they also should not be dismissed.

President Biden ran for president arguing that he could usher in a new era for this country that moved beyond the MAGA madness. He has accomplished a lot, but with Trump back on the ballot, there is a lot of talk, even among some of Biden’s 2020 voters, that he has failed to reset the course of the nation.

But perhaps it is helpful to try to look further into the future to assess the present and where we might end up. When a ship makes a small change in direction, it leads to big changes over time. The same holds true for a ship of state.

What will historians say about this era? A lot depends on what happens in November, but already, if we look in the right places, we can see a dysfunctional status quo beginning to crumble. It is not naive to seek out hope. It can be a solid foundation upon which to build.